FREE PICK for Friday May 30th 2008
Posted by Samurai
Game : Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) 07:10pm EST
Prediction : Chicago White Sox w / Contreras must pitch
Analysis : Its incredibly hard to imagine that a team that I used constantly over the last few seasons to turn tidy profits is beginning to actually become the enemy the team that is now overvalued by the odd makers. I cannot deny that the added price to the Tampa line is not without justification as they remain in first place in arguably the toughest division in the Majors. But this poses a questiondoes their recent success warrant a -$145 price tag against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball? Absolutely not! The true line in this contest should in the neighborhood of -$120 against, so we know from the start we are backing an underdog that is undervalued. I must admit I was hoping that that Chicago would lose on Thursday because that would have given us some more value to this line, but their 5-1 win might just also add some confidence and give momentum to this very dangerous underdog who is sending arguably one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in right-hander Jose Contreras. Contreras is fresh off a dominating performance against the Angles this past Sunday going 8.0 strong innings and giving up only 2 earned runs and 3 hits while striking out 10. With that start, Contreras comes into this contest with four quality starts in a row where he has posted an impressive 1.61 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, giving up just 5.5 hits per nine innings and is averaging 6.75 strikeouts per nine innings. There is no question that Contreras should be in for a challenge (considering Tampa Bay is 11-6 +$485 where they average 5.4 runs per games in home/night settings). Tampa will counter with a quality pitcher of their own in right-hander James Shields. Shields could find some trouble against a Chicago team that has been profitable all season long and one that is +$380 against right-handers in all settings where their offense averages a respectable 4.7 runs per game. Shields has also not performed very well against Chicago as he is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in two career starts against the White Sox. That is direct contrast to Contreras performance against Tampa where he comes into Friday 5-0 when starting against Tampa bay with an ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of just 1.182. What whos favored here. We also cannot discount the series dominance of Chicago against the Devil Rays as they are 11-5 +$390 against Tampa Bay (in all settings) over the last 3 seasons and 7-3 +$390 in games played at Tampa over the last 3 seasons! Whos favored here? Lets take a shot at the surging Sox with the nice price tag!
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Units and Performance
Posted by Samurai
Yesterdays FREE Pick : Chicago Cubs ML
Results : WIN
Yesterdays My Guaranteed Picks : ( St Louis Cardinals ML, Arizona Diamondbacks ML )
Results : WIN 1 of 2
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Chicago Cubs ML, St Louis Cardinals ML )
Results : WIN 59.86
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Chicago Cubs ML, Arizona Diamondbacks ML )
Results : LOSS
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( St Louis Cardinals ML, Arizona Diamondbacks ML )
Results : LOSS
Over All Results : WIN 9.86 Units
Units this month: UP 1469.78 Units
Total FREE pick selections for this month: 17 out of 28 ( 61% )
Total Guaranteed pick selections for this month: 43 out of 54 ( 79% )
FREE PICK for Thursday May 29th 2008
Posted by Samurai
Game : Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs (MLB) 08:05pm EST
Prediction : Chicago Cubs ML w / Marquis must pitch
Analysis :The Cubs have built their 22-8 home mark mostly by averaging 6.33 RPG in “the friendly confines.” However, in sweeping the Dodgers in a three-game series, the Cubs scored a total of just eight runs but the team’s pitching staff held the Dodgers to just one run in each game. The Cubs will likely have to score more runs tonight if they want to win because Jason Marquis has won just one of his last six starts and will take a 2-3 mark with a 4.97 ERA into this game. However, he is 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last four starts against Colorado and the Rockies are nowhere near last year’s offensive powerhouse. The Rockies led the NL with a 2.80 team BA in ’07, averaging 5.28 RPG. Those numbers are down to .255 and 4.15 RPG this year as Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, and Troy Tulowitzki remain out of the lineup. The Rockies have lost eight straight on the road and 14 of their last 16 away from Coors Field. They are 8-19 on the road this season, averaging 3.67 RPG. After ‘killing’ right-handed pitching in 2007 (70-49 while averaging 5.4 RPG), the Rockies are only 15-26 vs righties this year, averaging just 4.2 RPG. Marquis may be shaky but so is the Colorado lineup he will face. As for Colorado’s starter tonight, Jeff Francis is a far cry from the pitcher he was in 2007. Colorado went 22-12 with Francis on the mound last year, as his plus-$1,095 moneyline mark made him MLB’s second-biggest “money-maker.” He enters this game 1-5 with a 6.18 ERA, as Colorado is 3-7 (minus-$420) in his 10 starts. It won’t give Francis any confidence to remind him that he’s made three previous starts in Wrigley Field, posting a 9.37 ERA! Take the Cubs.
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Units and Performance
Posted by Samurai
Yesterdays FREE Pick : Minnesota Twins ML
Results : WIN
Yesterdays My Guaranteed Picks : ( Tampa Bay Rays ML, Arizona Diamondbacks ML )
Results : WIN 1 of 2
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Minnesota Twins ML, Tampa Bay Rays ML )
Results : WIN 69.41
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Minnesota Twins ML, Arizona Diamondbacks ML )
Results : LOSS
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Tampa Bay Rays ML, Arizona Diamondbacks ML )
Results : LOSS
Over All Results : WIN 19.41 Units
Units this month: UP 1459.92 Units
Total FREE pick selections for this month: 16 out of 27 ( 59% )
Total Guaranteed pick selections for this month: 42 out of 52 ( 81% )
FREE PICK for Wednesday May 28th 2008
Posted by Samurai
Game : Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (MLB) 08:10pm EST
Prediction : Minnesota Twins ML w / Hernendez must pitch
Analysis : Do the Royals really have any business being installed as favorites of any kind these days? With yesterday’s Game One loss to the Twins, that’s that makes it NINE games in a row that he hosts have lost going into Wednesday night. Team hitting is down to a dismal .228 in their last 10 games…. while starting pitcher ERA is 6.67 in the same time span. The ‘no-rest’ GRIND is finally getting to the Royals, as tonight’s game is their 15th STRAIGHT game with NO rest! They have not had an off-day in over two weeks.
LIVIAN HERNANDEZ is ALREADY 2-0 vs the Royals this season (ERA of 2.57). That includes 7 innings of SHUTOUT ball “In the Park’ as he won 5-0 back on April 11th. He’s also 4-0 O/U when the OU line is 7-8.5 runs and 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs fellow division opponents. Zack Greinke has an ERA approaching 6.00 in his last 3 starts. He’s a PERFECT 0-4 versus the Twins dating back to the 2005 season. He’s also 9-28 in his career when pitching off a team loss…. and 5-22 in Game Two of a series.
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Units and Performance
Posted by Samurai
Yesterdays FREE Pick : Baltimore Orioles ML
Results : WIN
Yesterdays My Guaranteed Picks : ( Arizona Diamondbacks ML, Anaheim Angels ML )
Results : WIN 1 of 2
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Baltimore Orioles ML, Arizona Diamondbacks ML )
Results : LOSS
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Baltimore Orioles ML, Anaheim Angels ML )
Results : WIN 57.26
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Arizona Diamondbacks ML, Anaheim Angels ML )
Results : LOSS
Over All Results : WIN 7.26 Units
Units this month: UP 1440.51 Units
Total FREE pick selections for this month: 15 out of 26 ( 58% )
Total Guaranteed pick selections for this month: 41 out of 50 ( 82% )
FREE PICK for Tuesday May 27th 2008
Posted by Samurai
Game : New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (MLB) 07:05pm EST
Prediction : Baltimore Orioles ML w / Burres must pitch
Analysis : The Pinstripes send Ian Kennedy up against Brian Burres and the Orioles in Game Two of this series in Baltimore this is a right-back revenge rematch from last Thursday when Kennedy edged Burres, 2-1 at Yankees Stadium. With Kennedy owing a 7.27 ERA on the road this season and Burres sporting a 2.46 at home this season, look for Kennedy to drop to 0-5 in his last five road starts here tonight.
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Units and Performance
Posted by Samurai
Yesterdays FREE Pick : Milwaulee Brewers ML
Results : WIN
Yesterdays My Guaranteed Picks : ( Toronto Blue Jays ML, Philadelphia Phillies ML )
Results : WIN 2 of 2
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Milwaulee Brewers ML, Toronto Blue Jays ML )
Results : WIN 39.63
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Milwaulee Brewers ML, Philadelphia Phillies ML )
Results : WIN 37.78
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( Toronto Blue Jays ML, Philadelphia Phillies ML )
Results : WIN 34.96
Over All Results : WIN 112.37 Units
Units this month: UP 1433.25 Units
Total FREE pick selections for this month: 14 out of 25 ( 56% )
Total Guaranteed pick selections for this month: 40 out of 48 ( 83% )
FREE PICK for Monday May 26th 2008
Posted by Samurai
Game : Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals (MLB) 01:35pm EST
Prediction : Milwaukee Brewers ML w / Sheets must pitch
Analysis :When the Brewers send Big Ben Sheets to the hill in Washington Monday afternoon they’ll do so knowing he’s cashed in 10 of his last 12 road starts. He’s also in great KW form with 1 walk and 17 strikeouts in his last three starts. Back the better team and the better arm here today.
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Units and Performance
Posted by Samurai
Yesterdays FREE Pick : St Louis Cardinals ML
Results : LOSS
Yesterdays My Guaranteed Picks : ( New York Yankees ML, Wahington Nationals ML )
Results : WIN 2 of 2
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( St Louis Cardinals ML, New York Yankees ML)
Results : LOSS
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( St Louis Cardinals ML, Wahington Nationals ML )
Results : LOSS
25 Units 2 Team Parlay : ( New York Yankees ML, Wahington Nationals ML )
Results : WIN 43.67
Over All Results : LOSS 6.33 Units
Units this month: UP 1320.88 Units
Total FREE pick selections for this month: 13 out of 24 ( 54% )
Total Guaranteed pick selections for this month: 38 out of 46 ( 83% )