FREE Pick for Sunday September 5th 2010
Posted by Samurai
Game : Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox (MLB) 01:35pm EST
Prediction : Chicago White Sox ML / Mark Buehrle must start.
Analysis : Buehrle posted a 3.15 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over the past three starts. In his 8 starts in day games he has posted a solid 3.88 ERA. Beckett is struggling to fine his top form and has posted a 5.04 ERA and a 1.119 WHIP over his last three starts. Boston looks exhausted and is all but out of the play-off hunt. They are batting just 245 with a 291 OBP and scoring 4 RPG over the past seven games. Boston is just 8-26 (-19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team posting a win percentage between 54% to 62% in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Beckett is just 4-11 (-10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team posting a win percentage between 54% to 62% in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
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FREE Pick for Saturday September 4th 2010
Posted by Samurai
Game : Anaheim Angels at Oakland Atheltics (MLB) 04:10pm EST
Prediction : Oakland Atheltics ML / Trevor Cahill must start.
Analysis : Cahill was rocked in his last start against the Yankees, but I expect that disappointing performance to leave him even hungrier Saturday. Cahill has been money in the bank all season, especially at home where he is 8-2 w/ a 1.84 ERA on the season. Plus, he has had a lot of success against the Angels, going 3-1 (5-1 on the money line) lifetime with an ERA of only 2.09. Weaver is one of the better pitchers in baseball, but he hasn’t been on his game lately. He’s 0-3 with an ERA of 5.21 over his last 3 starts. Plus, he has struggled on the road all season (4.60 ERA), and he is just 2-6 on the money line in his last 8 road starts against the A’s.
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FREE Pick for Friday September 3rd 2010
Posted by Samurai
Game : Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners (MLB) 10:10pm EST
Prediction : Cleveland Indians ML / Fausto Carmona must start.
Analysis : The Indians have won their last six games in Seattle, and I like them to make it seven straight tonight. Carmona has struggled in recent starts, but he is a rock solid 6-4 with a 3.99 ERA on the road. Plus, he is 2-1 with an ERA of just 2.36 in his career against the Mariners. Seattle’s southpaw French is coming off a quality outing against Minnesota, but I’m not sold. When pitching on 4 days of rest, he is just 1-5 on the money line in his last 6 starts. Plus, the Indians have done their best work at the plate against lefty starters this season, hitting .259 (.329 on-base %) and scoring 4.1 runs per game. Those numbers may not get you out of your seat, but consider that Seattle is only hitting .236 (.297 on-base %) and scoring 3.3 runs per game against righties. Cleveland is an impressive 8-2 in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage of .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, defeating these teams by an average score of 6.1 to 3.6.
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FREE Pick for Thursday September 2nd 2010
Posted by Samurai
Game : Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners (MLB) 10:10pm EST
Prediction : Seattle Mariners ML / Doug Fister must start.
Analysis : Seattle starter Doug Fister has 3 walks and 16 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Fister has allowed 3 or less runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. The Mariners are 4-1 their last 5 home games as favorites and they are 5-2 their 7 games as favorites. Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many baserunners as innings pitched. The Indians are 28-61 their last 89 games as underdogs.
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FREE Pick for Wednesday September 1st 2010
Posted by Samurai
Game : San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) 06:10pm EST
Prediction : San Diego Padres ML / Mat Latos must start.
Analysis : The Padres are 38-18 versus teams with a losing record including 12-5 when playing on the road in this situation. They are also a perfect 9-0 when Latos takes the bump on the road versus teams with a losing record. San Diego is 14-4 when playing in Game 3 of a series this season and Arizona is 9-24 in Game 3’s. One final note for the Padres we see they are 6-0 when Mike Everitt is behind home plate calling balls and strikes.
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FREE Pick for Tuesday August 31st 2010
Posted by Samurai
Game : Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (MLB) 11:15pm EST
Prediction : San Francisco Giants ML / Madison Bumgarner must start.
Analysis : Colorado sits 7 games behind San Diego while San Francisco sits 5 games behind the Padres in the NL West division race. Colorado is 6-17 this year as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Colorado is scoring only 3.6 runs per game on the road this year. Colorado is 25-40 on the road this season while San Francisco is 40-26 at home this season. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.41 ERA overall this year and a 2.71 ERA at home this season. Esmil Rogers has a 7.30 ERA in all starts this year and a 7.90 ERA his last 3 starts. Rogers is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA overall vs San Francisco since 1997.
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FREE Pick for Monday August 30th 2010
Posted by Samurai
Game : San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) 09:40pm EST
Prediction : San Diego Padres ML / Wade LeBlanc must start.
Analysis : San Diego is 76-53 overall this year and leads the NL West division. Arizona is 25 games behind them with a record of 52-79 this season. San Diego is 8-1 this year as a road favorite of -125 to -150. San Diego is 25-13 against left handed starters this year. San Diego bullpen has a 2.80 ERA overall this year and a 3.18 ERA on the road this season. Arizona bullpen has a 5.93 ERA overall and a 5.56 ERA at home this season. Wade LeBlanc has a 3.86 ERA overall this year. Joe Saunders is 7-14 overall this year, 3-8 with a 5.23 ERA at home and 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA his last 3 starts.
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FREE Pick for Sunday August 29th 2010
Posted by Samurai
Game : Balitimore Orioles at Anaheim Angels (MLB) 03:35pm EST
Prediction : Anaheim Angels -1.5 / Jared Weaver must start.
Analysis : The Los Angeles Angels are in unfamiliar territory, being all but mathematically eliminated from winning the AL West with the whole month of September yet to go. They attempt to avoid the embarrassment of being swept at the Big A by Baltimore.
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FREE Pick for Saturday August 28th 2010
Posted by Samurai
Game : St Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (MLB) 07:05pm EST
Prediction : St Louis Cardinals ML / Kyle Lohse must start.
Analysis : The Nationals are struggling, having lost 5 of their last 6 games, and I expect those struggles to continue with Hernandez on the hill. Hernandez has been strong for most of the season, but he has been running out of gas down the stretch. The Nats have dropped each of his last 4 starts, and he is carrying an ERA of 6.12 over his last 3. It is also worth noting that he is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts against St. Louis. Lohse takes the ball for the Cards, working off a solid outing against Pittsburgh. I expect him to put together another strong performance tonight against a club he has won 5 straight starts against on the money line. The Cardinals are 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in this series.
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FREE Pick for Friday August 27th 2010
Posted by Samurai
Game : Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (MLB) 09:10pm EST
Prediction : Colorado Rockies ML / Ubaldo Jiminez must start.
Analysis : The Rockies have won 4 in a row, and I look for them to make it 5 straight with Jimenez taking the mound tonight. The right-hander is a perfect 8-0 (10-1 on the money line) in his 11 home starts this season. This is the time of year when Kershaw starts to wear down, and he showed signs of that in his last start. In fact, the Dodgers are only 2-9 in Kershaw’s August starts over the last 2 seasons. He’ll have a tough time navigating a Colorado lineup that is hitting .300 and scoring 5.9 runs/game at home this season.
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